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Home > Handicapping > Jon White's Analysis
Jon White's Stakes Analysis
About Jon White
(from HRTV.com)
Jon White knows a lot about racing. He's passionate about the game. Don't believe it? Go ahead, ask him a question. It's 3-5 he'll not only know the answer but why you asked the question.
Jon White brings to HRTV extensive experience as a television commentator at Santa Anita Park complimented by a familiarity with racing at tracks throughout North America, stemming from a 25-year career as a reporter, columnist, handicapper and chart caller with Daily Racing Form. He also has worked as a racing official at the highest level, serving in the capacity of steward at tracks in Washington state and Idaho. His background is further enriched by having spent one year as media relations manager at Lone Star Park in Texas, and by participating in the sport for three years as a licensed Thoroughbred owner.
Jon received the 2004 Mark Kaufman Media Award from the Washington Thoroughbred Breeders' Association "for his excellence in reporting on the Washington Thoroughbred industry and Emerald Downs." On Dec. 28, 2003, he won a Santa Anita Pick Six that paid $45,981.20 with a $120 ticket that had been displayed on HRTV. Charlie Sigrast, an HRTV viewer in Chicago, also won $45,981.20 because he saw Jon's ticket on HRTV and decided to bet it.
When Jon White talks racing, people listen. So should you.
Pimlico Spring Meeting 2008
The Hilltop (Saturday, May 10)
1. FAREENA returns from a layoff and looms the one to beat in the Hilltop. She won by nearly five lengths when unveiled on the turf at Laurel last Sept. 12, then romped to a 9 1/2-length victory in an allowance/optional claiming race on that same turf course Oct. 20. In her only subsequent start, the daughter of 2001 Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given finished a respectable third behind Bsharpsonata and Grace and Power in the Nov. 24 renewal of the Selima Stakes, again on the turf at Laurel. And what have Bsharpsonata and Grace and Power done since then? Bsharpsonata went on to win the Tropical Park Oaks at Calder as well as the Grade II Forward Gal Stakes and Grade II Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. She also ran second in the Grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland and fifth in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. As for Grace and Power, after the Selima, she has finished second in the Grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes at Hollywood Park and fourth in the Edgewood Stakes at Churchill Downs. (Scratched)
2. CATMOSPHERE likewise returns from a layoff. She hasn't competed since finishing fourth in the Miss Grillo Stakes on the turf at Belmont Park last Sept. 30. In her only previous start, she was victorious in a maiden special weight race on the grass Sept. 8 at Belmont. Catmosphere has a beautiful pedigree (by Giant's Causeway out of a Mr. Prospector) and might do well in stakes races this year, starting in the Hilltop.(Scratched)
3. HARTIGAN has finished at least third in 6 of 7 lifetime starts. The lone time she has been worse than third was when she ran seventh (behind Fareena) in the Selima. Hartigan also could prove a tough customer if this race were to get switched to the main track. She has won on the dirt and finished third in the Wide Country Stakes on a sloppy track March 8 at Laurel. (WON $2.80)
The Hookedonthefeelin (Saturday, May 3)
1. KOSMO'S BUDDY seems ideally suited to what she's being asked to do here, go five furlongs on the turf. She's raced on the turf once, finishing second in the Gin Talking Stakes at Laurel last year while losing by a neck. That was a six-furlong race. Each one of her races since the Gin Talking has been at six furlongs or longer. Now she gets the opportunity to show what she can do in a five-furlong grass sprint. (Second)
2. DICEY D J comes off a second in a five-furlong grass dash against the boys at Gulfstream Park on April 19. Now she's running against fillies. Not only that, she's running against state-bred fillies. It will be no surprise if Dicey D J plays a winning tune in the Hookedonthefeelin. (WON $3.80)
3. OUTSIDE LANE romped to an eight-length victory at Charles Town on April 12. This will be her turf debut. She is by Outflanker, a son of Danzig. When you see Danzig in the pedigree for a turf debut runner, look out. (Fifth)
The Kentucky Derby (Saturday, May 3)
1. SMOOTH AIR, whose morning line price is 20-1, is my choice to win the roses. I believe has what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby in terms of class, stamina, running style and precedence. Big Brown is the 3-1 morning line Derby favorite. No one has finished closer to Big Brown than Smooth Air. If Big Brown loses based on his lack of experience or some other reason, the door then is open for someone else to win, perhaps someone like the more experienced Smooth Air. In the Florida Derby, Smooth Air made a good move on the far turn. This type of move often is what you will see the winner make in the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, I picked Closing Argument to win the Derby. He started at 71-1. One of the main reasons picked him is I envisioned him being first or second with a furlong to go. It turned out that Closing Argument had the lead with a furlong to run. He led throughout the final furlong until Giacomo overtook him in the closing yards. Closing Argument finished second, paying $70 to place. It’s the biggest place payoff in the history of the Derby. Similarly, I can see Smooth Air being first or second with a furlong to go in the Derby. If that does happen, it will put him in a prime position to possibly win because 43 of the last 45 Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run, the two exceptions being Grindstone and Giacomo. Colonel John is the 4-1 second choice on the Derby morning line. If you compare Smooth Air’s four best Beyer Speed Figures to the four best Beyers for Colonel John, Smooth Air’s figures are better. Of course, there is a bit of concern in that Smooth Air missed two days of training (April 25 and April 26) after spiking a temperature. But he returned to training April 27 (Sunday), and word is he appeared frisky and full of energy Monday and Tuesday. He also reportedly galloped a good 1 3/4 miles Wednesday. A temperature and missing a couple of days of training isn’t what you like to see before any race, let alone the Kentucky Derby. If he had missed more training or the temperature had come closer to the race, I would have gone elsewhere for my top pick. But I am sticking with Smooth Air as the one who will head to the Preakness Stakes as this year's Kentucky Derby winner. (Eleventh)
2. Z FORTUNE, whose morning line price is 15-1, has finished worse than second only once. He ran fifth as a 7-10 favorite in the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 15. After that disappointing performance, Z Fortune rebounded to finish a second in the Grade II (a race that really should be Grade I) Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 12. His effort that day was particularly good considering how wide he was on both turns. I will not be surprised if Z Fortune follows in the footsteps of Lil E. Tee and Grindstone and wins the roses after finishing second in the Arkansas Derby. Years ago, I was convinced trainer D. Wayne Lukas would win the Kentucky Derby. He eventually did it for the first time in 1988 with Winning Colors. I have the same feeling about trainers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen. Perhaps Asmussen will get his first Kentucky Derby victory with Z Fortune (or Pyro). As a son of Siphon, Z Fortune should like 1 1/4 miles. Siphon won such 1 1/4-mile races as the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup and Grade I Santa Anita Handicap. (Tenth)
3. COLONEL JOHN just looks like a rock-solid contender. I certainly can’t argue with anybody who thinks he’s going to win. He has the 2-year-old foundation and a pair of 1 1/8-mile victories under his belt at 3. He’s finished first or second in each of his six lifetime starts. In the Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on March 1, Colonel John attended the pace and won. In the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 5, he generated a strong stretch kick to turn a three-length deficit at the eighth pole into a half-length victory. Colonel John’s never raced on the dirt, but we’ve seen a number of horses (Gayego, Tiago, Zenyatta, Monterey Jazz) win stakes races recently coming off synthetic surfaces. It’s also quite encouraging that Colonel John worked five furlongs in a sizzling :57 4/5 on the dirt at Churchill Downs last Sunday. It looks like Colonel John will relish 1 1/4 miles. He’s certainly bred for such a trip. Colonel John is by Tiznow out of a Turkoman mare. Tiznow is the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a 1 1/4-mile race. Point Given was out of a Turkoman mare. Turkoman won a pair of Grade I races at 1 1/4 miles. Point Given won the Grade I Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles, the Grade I Travers Stakes at 1 1/4 miles and the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles by 12 1/4 lengths. However, there is a concern to me that Colonel John’s only had two races this year. Of the last 55 horses to try and win the Derby with just two preps, 53 have failed, with the exceptions being Sunny’s Halo and Street Sense. (Sixth)
4. PYRO, whose morning line price is 6-1, has been consistent on the dirt while never finishing worse than third in six starts. He had one of the most impressive performances in the prep races this year, closing with a rush after traffic woes to win the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 9. The Beyer Speed Figure of 90 and final time of 1:44.68 were not impressive, but the Beyer and final time were negatively impacted by a snail-like pace. At his NTRA blog, Randy Moss wrote this after the Risen Star: "Media reports estimated Pyro’s final quarter-mile in Saturday’s Risen Star Stake at 22.6 seconds. The natural pessimist in me found it difficult to believe a 3-year-old could finish that strongly -- even during a last-to-first rally -- so I used a digital timer to get the real story of his stretch clocking. Here it is: Pyro actually ran his final quarter in about 22.3 seconds." In the Grade II Louisiana Derby, Pyro had to await room turning into the stretch and early in the stretch run. When a hole materialized with a little less than a furlong to go, he charged to the front and quickly pulled away to prevail by three lengths. Based on his 3-year-old dirt form and 2-year-old races, it looks like Pyro will like 1 1/4 miles. His breeding also suggests that. He’s a son of Pulpit out of a Wild Again mare. In the 1997 Kentucky Derby, Pulpit had the lead with a half-mile to go. But he weakened in the stretch to finish fourth, then emerged from the race with a small displaced chip in his left knee. Trainer Frank Brothers said he felt “the chip significantly hampered Pulpit’s performance in the Derby.” Pyro’s had more than two preps this year, unlike the Florida Derby winner (Big Brown), the Santa Anita Derby winner (Colonel John), the Wood Memorial winner (Tale of Ekati), the Blue Grass Stakes winner (Monba) and the Illinois Derby winner (Recapturetheglory). Obviously, Pyro’s biggest negative is his Blue Grass debacle. He finished 10th on the Blue Grass. Perhaps a line can be drawn through that race because it was on Polytrack. Still, such a poor performance in Pyro’s final race before the Derby is cause for concern. The last Derby winner to finish worse than fourth in his or her final prep was Iron Liege in 1957. And Iron Liege was lucky to win the roses. That’s the Derby in which Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish aboard Gallant Man, who lost by a nose. Another concern for Pyro is his 2008 Beyer Speed Figures vis-à-vis his 2007 figures. As a 2-year-old, he posted Beyers of 105 and 100. His figures as a sophomore have been 95, 90 and 73. Is he a 2-year-old who hasn’t improved enough at 3 to win the Derby? (Eighth)
Upcoming May Stakes Races at Pimlico
The Kattegat's Pride Starter Hcp (May 16)
The Adena Stallions' Miss Preakness Stakes - GIII (May 16)
The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes - GII (May 16)
The Woodlawn Stakes (May 16)
THe Very One Stakes (May 16)
THE PIMLICO SPECIAL- GI (May 16)
The Barbaro Stakes (May 17)
The Maryland Sprint Hcp - GIII (May 17)
The Skipat Stakes (May 17)
The Baltimore City Turf Sprint (May 17)
The Gallorette Handicap - GIII (May 17)
The Allaire Dupont Distaff Stakes - GII (May 17)
The Hirsch Jacobs Stakes - GIII (May 17)
THE PREAKNESS STAKES - GI (May 17)
The Dixie Stakes - GII (May 17)
The Deputed Testamony Starter Hcp (May 17)
The Shine Again Stakes (May 24)
The Pearl Necklace Stakes (May 31)
Archives of the Past Stakes Analysis
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